This research is the second report of a 3 year project, ‘Development, Applications and Policy Implication of Risk Assessment Tool for Crime-prone Region and Space’, which started in 2012. This year, from viewpoints of environmental criminology, risk assessment was analysed particularly on commercial areas. The reason is that despite of unusually higher level of crime rates, they have not received much attention from policy makers. And higher crime rates in commercial areas appear to be due to higher level of floating population. This research, while defining crime risk as ‘possibility of crime and its consequences’, attempted to develop risk assessment tools for crime in a specific region and space, for example, commercial areas. The primary purpose of this research is to develop and apply this risk assessment tool on certain regions and space.
With summaries on key points from last year’s project, this report provides discussions on relationship between crime and crime risk in commercial areas. In particular, as the Business Improvement Districts(BID), a typical commercial area development model, has been gaining interest in many countries such as the UK, USA and Canada, this research examines the significance of this model, its historical background, related controversies and its relationship with crime prevention policies.
Environmental criminology is a new paradigm rather different from existing theories that have focused on criminality of criminals. Wortley and Mazerolle (2009) used Brantingham and Brantingham (1991)’s environmental criminological perspectives to explain a three dimensional level of analysis on crime rates in history. Three dimensional analysis are macro-level analysis, meso-level analysis, and micro-level analysis. A brief review on their discussions on three level of analysis on crime rates is done. For example, macro level analysis focuses on crime distributions of nations, states, provinces, counties or cities, as meso level analysis includes studies of crime occurring in cities or districts within large cities. And micro level analysis focuses on type and location of buildings, landscaping, lights, interior design and security hardware, and analyzes specific crime locations. In particular, at micro level, the focus is on direct effect of an environmental factor on an individual’s certain decisions and behavior.

Then attempts are made here to understand the Business Improvement Districts(BID) model by reviewing its background, historical development, nature and features, and its impact on crime. The main reason for examining the BID model is that despite of a wide variety of its definitions, modes of operation and administration, its program elements, and cities and states, most of the BID model have included and adopted programs promoting safety and security level in mostly commercial areas, which have much relevance and implications for crime prevention programs. While most of the BID programs are exerting efforts to make their program areas safer by trying to lower crime rates and have actually have shown low crime rates in many areas, what still remains to be answered is whether the BID programs do actually reduce crime rates. Controversies are also reviewed concerning the (possible) deterrent effect, crime displacement effect, and other related factors. Thus it is suggested that more research should be done to examine more precisely the BID program effects on crime rates.

Prior to risk assessment, official police records of five major crime type(robbery, thief, sex crime, assault, arson) from 2011 to 2012 were used for analysis by region and location, and the findings are as follows. First, while police records of these crimes in local governments of metropolitan cities such as Seoul, Busan, Daegu, and Gwangju were the highest, Seguipo city of Jeju island and Seokcho city of Gangwon province had relatively higher crime rates. These findings seem to suggest seasonal factors playing a major role in rather high crime rates of latter two low populated regions. These regions are tourist regions, meaning crime risk dramatically rising during seasonal holidays. Therefore, these regions need to be specialized in crime prevention programs that target high concentration of tourists around tourists sites, by increasing temporary police stations near beaches in the summer season and in ski resorts areas in the winter seasons. A tailored crime prevention program addressing these conditions needs to be implemented.
Second, when official police records are divided by types of metropolis, medium-sized and small cities, it is found that while sex crime is the highest in metropolis areas, robbery and theft are the highest in medium-sized cities and assault is the highest in small cities. In response to the higher rates of sex crime in metropolis areas following policies are suggested and need to be implemented: increasing patrols that target single-room only apartments where many women live alone, tightening regulations on building design and maintenance, providing police escort service for women who come home late, and enhancement of CPTED for high-dense adult entertainment areas. In case of medium-sized cities where there is frequent robbery and theft, it is suggested that enhancement of crime prevention and comprehensive patrol strategies on stores vulnerable to robbery and theft such as convenient stores, jewelry stores and cell phone stores need to be implemented. For small cities with the highest rates of assault and with higher population ratio of older people in mostly rural areas, much of violence seems to be the result of drunkenness. Therefore, policies for making rural areas more active communities and increasing social welfare for the elderly are suggested.
Third, when official police records were divided by crime sites(ex. commercial facility, residential area, mutiuse facility), it is found that robbery, theft and assault showed the highest crime rate in commercial and adult entertainment facility. Although sex crime rate was also high in those facilities, it was not much different from residential areas. These statistics confirm high crime risk in commercial areas and the necessity for adopting various strategies for policy alternatives such as education programs for preventing drunkeness and sex crime.
Fourth, according to official records, robbery and theft seem to be mostly related to unlocked doors. In fact, such cases were easily found in field observations as well. Promotion campaign for making a habit of locking doors and installing more secure locks is strongly suggested.

Based on theoretical discussions and results of analysing official records, a crime risk assessment tool was developed. This crime risk assessment tools is based on crime risk prediction and crime deterrence assessment model from the CAP Index in the U.S., (RTM)Risk Terrain Modeling from Rutgers University and crime risk assessment and crime prediction algorithm of Geo-Pros from Korean National Police. These models were explained in detail in the first year part of the report. Based on these models, two risk assessment tools were developed, one of which is ‘micro-assessment tool’ and the other is ‘macro-assessment tool’.

In essence, there were attempts to maintain consistency with assessment models discussed in the previous year’s report and to propose a more appropriate assessment tool with more objectivity and high validity. In particular, in this year’s research, the same checklist method was used as the models from 2012 to maintain continuity and consistency. However, while in 2012 focus was put on crime assessment of low-density residential areas(no high-rise apartments), in 2013 focus was on crime assessment of commercial areas. It may seem natural that if assessment target changes, assessment tools should change as well. However, after extensive review of previous research and with much consideration, the research team decided that it is rather rational to use the same assessments frame used in the checklist from 2012. It was presumed that even if research area changes, variables explaining crime in a certain region may not necessarily have to be changed(e.g. crime rate, 112 police-call rate), and there would not be too much difference in crime-related factors(e.g. demographic mobility, economic level) and their causality. Also, since commercial areas are often mixed with residential areas, it is proposed that including assessment items used last year for residential areas in this research for commercial areas should not be any threat to validity.

This study used micro and macro-assessment tools to assess crime risk of three crime types(roberry/theft, sex crime, assault) on all municipal levels of governments in Korea and Dong(sub-district unit) within six Gu(district unit) in Seoul. Macro-assessment was conducted on Korea for five major regions, metropolitan cities, medium-sized cities and small cities, totaling in 215 municipal levels of governments. Micro-assessment was also conducted on six Gu in Seoul along with 37 Dong within those six Gu. Areas for assessment were divided into commercial areas, residential areas and mixed-land areas. In particular, micro-assessment provides a risk matrix table, showing results more dimensionally. Results of assessment is as follows.
First, the factor named ‘harmful facilities and vulnerable persons’(densities of lodging facilities, adult entertainment facilities and ratio of women vulnerable to sex crime) is most influential on all types of crime rates. This means that areas with high density of young women in their 20s and 30s and areas with many commercial facilities such as karaoke bars, room salons and night clubs have the highest crime risk. Therefore, it is suggested that these areas need devices and policies to manage crime risk, and that measures and crime prevention programs to provide protection for the young people around harmful facilities need to be implemented and promoted.
Second, the floating population is only influential on robbery and theft rates, which is unexpected. This low influence of the floating population is somewhat different from that of previous research. Also, the floating populations were calculated as the number of population floating around each area(Dong), provided by Seoul Geographic Information System. However, these are only estimations of the floating population in a Dong and the number of points of measurement in many Dongs are not the same, which may lead to statistical error and the possibility that a statistically significant effect was not found.
Third, it was found that sex crime rate is higher in areas with high density of harmful facilities and vulnerable women, and that robbery/theft rates are higher in areas with high residential mobility and floating population and assault rate is higher in areas with low natural surveillance. Therefore, it is suggested that the police and local governments should focus on these areas with crime prevention strategies more tailored to those specific areas.

In addition, quantifiable data items in micro-assessment was used for cluster analysis of all 106 Dongs within 6 Gus of Seoul to find factors that influence crime rates. Results indicate that four following factor groups can be considered: (1) the factor ‘commercialization and residential mobility’ consisting of density of commercial area, rate of foreign residents, appraised value of land and residential instability, (2) the factor ‘density of harmful facilities and vulnerable population’ consisting of density of lodging facilities, ratio of women vulnerable to sex crime and density of adult entertainment facilities, (3) the factor ‘the floating populations’, (4) the factor ‘residential environmental vulnerability’ consisting of density of secure lighting, non-high rise apartments and one person household rate. Based on factor values of the above cluster analysis, principle components analysis was conducted. Results show that the factor ‘harmful facilities and vulnerable population’ had the highest impact on all types of crime rates, while the factor ‘floating population’ had impact only on robbery/theft rate and had the lowest impact on average crime rate. Low impact of floating population is different from previous research. Aside from demographic and economic factors included in this study, architectural factors also had significant impact on robbery/theft, assault and average crime rates. In particular, architectural factors had highest impact on assault rate and average crime rates after harmful facilities and vulnerable population.

Field observations were conducted for all of 6 Gus. In this qualitative approach, for two weeks, three teams of 2 or 4 persons made observations in the field area, and also took pictures and conducted interviews with community members and police officers. Field observations were done by either conducting observations based on a pre-made checklist, or following a police officer’s suggestion to go to the actual crime scene area and analysing characteristics of the crime scenes. Findings of the field observation can be summarized as follows. First, roadsides of large avenues in commercial areas with high natural surveillance and little human interaction were safe, but roadsides of small roads had high risk of assault and sexual assault. Second, roadsides of large avenues still had risk of robbery/theft, as it is easier for criminals to get away. Also, smaller roads is used by criminals seeking potential victims such as drunken people, students and women, leading to high risk for assault and sex crime. It appears that measures applying fundamental CPTED principles are much needed and that other crime prevention strategies such as foot patrols, women escort service, neighborhood watch are needed as well. Third, regarding breaking and entering, backsides of commercial buildings are highly vulnerable. They are especially weak where parking lots impede natural surveillance. Experienced robbers and thieves prefer backsides of commercial buildings which lacks natural surveillance, and they use weak walls and windows as entry points. Therefore, in case of commercial buildings, security grilles for windows and covers for (gas) pipes usually attached alongside walls need to be installed to prevent crime as in the case of residential buildings. If there is a parking lot behind the building, CCTV or an emergency bell buttons need to be installed. Fourth, illegal parking not only impedes natural surveillance but also produces to social disorder, becoming an indirect or direct causes of assault and property crime. To address this parking problems, public parking lots of appropriate size need to be built and many new requirements for additional parking space are necessary.

Considering various risk assessment results and workshop with police officers, this study suggests some proposals for improved application of the CPTED in future. First is the issue of using big data for crime prediction. As introduced in Chapter 4, there are various efforts to pro-actively respond crime using large amounts of crime data. These efforts are not limited to public institutions and private sectors are also actively making efforts to make use of big data. Even private ventures are promoted to go far so as to provide commercial service. However, most of these ventures do not publicize their model or predictive algorithms. Due to this, crime prediction is often harassed with validity and reliability problems and even controversies arise concerning human rights infringement. Currently the most advanced crime prediction system in Korea is "Geo-Pros", which was developed by Korean National Police. However, this system’s algorithm is also not openly publicized. Algorithm of "Geo-Pros" needs more systematic research by related academics, and hopefully this study will aid the development of crime prediction system in Korea. Second, the belief that CCTV can solve many problems cannot be ignored. In application of the CPTED, CCTV has top priority. As seen in the survey result done as part of this research, CCTV is the most preferred crime prevention method. However, field observations and interviews suggest that CCTV has also numerous problems regarding performance, location and management. It is necessary to recognize that mechanical security cannot completely replace the human element. Third is the issue of how to utilize commercial and residential areas. The argument that commercial and residential areas should be built separated from each other has no merit where only 2% of land in nation is designated commercial area and 5% in Seoul. However, even if an area is designated residential, it’s not impossible for commercial facilities to be built on those areas as long as they are not designated residential-only. Furthermore, as Jane Jacobs, the author of ‘The Death and Life of Great American Cities,’ suggested, mixed land used of residential and commercial areas can contribute to reduction of crime problems by revitalizing city life. The problem is the type and form of commercial facilities. Mixed use of residential and commercial areas can be one of the good ways to increase natural surveillance and decrease feeling of isolation. However, concentration of adult entertainment facilities and other various forms of alcohol drinking stores on small roads can make crime risk management awfully difficult. Economic regulation on commerce can limit economic activities, but it is necessary to recognize and rationalize this kind of regulation for community safety. Fourth is the issue of security consulting and education. According to interviews with merchants in commercial areas, it is often difficult to define the crime problem in a certain area and come up with an appropriate solution. This is difficult not only for the merchants themselves, but also for public officials and police officers in the area. Academics and practitioners need to actively seek out solutions by going out on the field and conducting research. Also, systematic security-related education for public officials and general public need to be developed and executed.