The purpose of this study, which constitutes a part of the KIC research on the future of criminal policy, is to predict the changes of criminal policy issues in the future to be caused by the changes of the Korean Society, and use the findings to propose strategies for national policies. We need to predict various issues related with criminal policies to understand the changes to come and assess and analyze their impact. Social changes, such as changes in the socio-demographic structure and the economic structure affect the crime patterns and which groups are vulnerable to crimes. To establish effective criminal policies, therefore, we need to base those policies on the diagnosis of the patterns of change which affect our lives and safety.

Aging of societies is now a world-wide phenomenon, spurred by the increased efficiency of food distribution and the advancement of medical technologies, which resulted in the increase of the average lifespan. The speed of aging in South Korea far exceeds that of other countries such as Japoan, the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. Such swift aging points to the inevitable insufficiency of preparation against the issues and impact that will emerge as the society ages further.
A significant social phenomenon associated with aging is the increase of aged criminals. This is largely due to the increase of poverty, physical deterioration, and social alienation among the aged population, as well as the conflict between different generations.

A comprehensive review of the previous researches, macro-economic indicators, and findings from surveys on citizens in general and experts suggests three scenarios for the future of the Korean society.

The first scenario presupposes that the negative changes described above are reinforced or maintained in the Korean society. Under this scenario, more aged citizens fall into poverty, their employment become more unstable, family relations break down, the aged groups are further alienated from the society and suffer from feeling of deprivation and stress, the number of aged citizens living alone increases, and their living environment deteriorates. This leads to the increase of violence crimes and property crimes, habitual offenders, suicide and criminal victims, and fear of crime among aged citizens. The increase of aged offenders may result in the shortage of the correction budget.

Under the second scenario, the structural issues that cause crimes - poverty, unstable employment, family breakdown, individualization and increase of single-person household among the aged population - still persist. However, the basic factors causing crimes are inhibited in the short term through efforts to intervene in the process where the said issues lead to other secondary issues, In other words, this scenario presents the possibility of making up for structural weaknesses by achieving short-term suppression of factors causing crimes through local silver welfare programs designed to reduce social alienation, feeling of deprivation and stress among aged citizens, preventive programs against repeated offenses, and CPTED strategies tailored to each region.

The third scenario describes a situation where the poverty issue among aged citizens is fundamentally resolved through social insurance and pension programs and aged citizens enjoy the benefit of medical welfare. This scenario predicts a situation where the root causes of crimes among aged citizens have been overcome.

To avoid the worst case scenario such as the first one, we need to come up with what we can do with the given budget, and predict the issues which the increase of aged population may possibly bring, to reflect those findings into the policies. The following is a suggestion of short-term criminal policies and strategies to achieve such goal.

- Reinforce the role of social welfare institutes
- Develop programs for aged citizens at local institutions
- Adopt programs to prevent repeated offenses among aged citizens
- Strengthen police activities in local communities
- Provide crime prevention education to aged citizens through local communities
- Improve the living environment of aged citizens living alone
- Establish the criteria for categorizing aged offenders and inmates
- Develop correctional specialized programs for aged inmates

This Study also proposes the following long-term policies and strategies to achieve the situation described in the third scenario.

- Enhance the welfare for aged citizens
- Build a system to control crimes by aged citizens at criminal judicial agencies
- Come up with measure to protect aged citizens during criminal proceedings
- Provide legal services for aged citizens
- Enact an Act designed to protect aged victims and aged criminals
- Build correctional facilities for aged criminals
- Improve the treatment of aged inmates within correctional facilities
- Develop correctional specialized programs for aged inmates
- Improve alternative treatment of aged inmates
- Enhance and improve rehabilitation and protection for aged ciminals
- Carry out systematic researches on aged crimes